A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
